The tech world is often a place of instant judgments, where a product's fate is sealed by its first quarterly sales report. According to numerous industry insiders, the iPhone Air, Apple's daring foray into an ultra-thin smartphone, appears to be facing that very scrutiny. Despite the buzz, it seems the iPhone Air has not managed to reverse the commercial struggles of its mid-tier predecessors, the iPhone Mini and iPhone Plus lines.
However, before writing its obituary, a prominent voice suggests we look at the bigger picture. In a recent in-depth report, Bloomberg’s renowned Apple analyst Mark Gurman argues that the iPhone Air’s market performance is almost beside the point. Instead, he positions the device as a critical, real-world trial run for a much more ambitious product: the long-rumored iPhone Fold.
More Than a Product: A Strategic Play for the Supply Chain
So, why would Apple launch a product they didn't expect to be a blockbuster? The answer, according to Gurman, lies in the supply chain. The iPhone Air, celebrated as the thinnest iPhone ever created, is a technological showcase. It relies on new materials, a unique internal layout, and a different battery architecture.
Gurman believes that perfecting these elements in a traditional form factor is a vital stepping stone. The real payoff will come when these refined technologies and components are adapted for the flexible display and complex hinge mechanism of a foldable iPhone. This strategic need to refine its manufacturing pipeline also explains why the iPhone Air was not priced as an aggressive mid-range option, instead sitting closer to the iPhone 17 Pro.
In his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman delves deeper into Apple's roadmap, suggesting that the company is playing a long game where the iPhone Air's immediate sales are just a secondary concern. You can read his full analysis here: Apple’s iPhone Road Map: iPhone Air 2, iPhone 18, Mac Pro Future.
What’s Next for the iPhone Air? Don’t Expect a Dual Camera Soon
For those hoping the next-generation iPhone Air would address its single-camera limitation, Gurman has sobering news. He explicitly dismisses rumors of an imminent dual-camera upgrade for the successor, tentatively called the iPhone Air 2.
According to his sources, the most significant upgrade for the second-generation model will be under the hood: the more efficient Apple A20 chipset, built on an advanced 2nm process. This jump in silicon technology is expected to be the key to solving one of the biggest challenges of an ultra-thin device: battery life.
So, when will the Air line get a camera boost? Gurman states that a dual-camera system is unlikely to arrive on the iPhone Air until the technology can be seamlessly adopted from the future iPhone Fold, further cementing the symbiotic relationship between the two product lines.
A New Launch Cadence: iPhones in Two Waves
One of the most significant revelations from Gurman’s reporting is the confirmation of a new, staggered iPhone launch strategy starting in 2026. This plan provides clarity on the confusing timeline for the iPhone Air 2.
Gurman reiterates that Apple will split its iPhone 18 lineup into two distinct launch waves:
Wave 1 (September 2026): This will feature the flagship models: the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the groundbreaking iPhone Fold.
Wave 2 (Spring 2027): Several months later, Apple will release the standard iPhone 18, a rumored iPhone 18e (potentially an "entry-level" variant), and the iPhone Air 2.
The fact that Apple chose the standalone "iPhone Air" name, rather than "iPhone 17 Air," now makes perfect strategic sense. It grants the company the freedom to release successors on a different schedule from the main numbered series. Gurman stresses that this 1.5-year cycle for the Air wasn't a reaction to its sales performance but was part of the plan from the very beginning.
This new, flexible release cadence is expected to become the norm for Apple for the foreseeable future. A visual roadmap based on Gurman's reporting, like the one shared by The Apple Hub on X, helps illustrate this multi-year plan, which culminates in a major redesign for the iPhone's 20th anniversary in 2027. That model, potentially called the iPhone 20, is expected to debut with curved glass and a highly anticipated under-display camera, marking the next true leap in iPhone design.