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| HyperX Fury DDR4 RAM modules installed on a motherboard |
If you've tried to build or upgrade a PC lately, you've felt it: the sting of high memory prices. DDR5 isn't coming down, and availability on certain kits feels tighter than ever. Gamers and PC enthusiasts are pointing fingers—at scalpers, at retailers, at the manufacturers themselves. But according to a veteran memory industry insider, we're mostly blaming the wrong people.
In a must-listen episode of the Broken Silicon Podcast from the YouTube channel Moore’s Law Is Dead, host Tom sat down with Dave Eggleston, a former Product Engineer at SanDisk and Director of Systems Engineering at Micron. Eggleston pulled back the curtain on the structural forces driving the current memory shortage, separating fact from panic-driven fiction.
Watch the full, revealing discussion on the Broken Silicon Podcast here.
The Real Culprit Isn't Who You Think
The root cause, Eggleston explains, is a seismic shift in demand. For decades, PCs, phones, and servers used similar DRAM. Now, the explosive growth of Artificial Intelligence has created a voracious new customer: AI accelerators, which require a special, high-profit memory called HBM (High Bandwidth Memory).
"HBM has become so critical for AI and GPUs that manufacturers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix now prioritize it over DDR4 and DDR5," Eggleston noted. "It's far more profitable but consumes more wafer space and is harder to manufacture."
Every silicon wafer dedicated to producing complex HBM stacks is a wafer not being used for the DDR5 memory that goes into your gaming rig or next console. This isn't a temporary blip—it's a fundamental reallocation of global semiconductor manufacturing capacity driven by giants like NVIDIA.
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| RAM module on a wooden desk |
Debunking the Myth: Did OpenAI Really Hog 40% of the World's HBM?
Recent headlines claimed OpenAI secured deals locking down a staggering 40% of the world's HBM supply. Eggleston expresses deep skepticism.
He calls these reports "mostly panic-driven PR," comparing them to grand fab announcements that often lack follow-through. "DRAM is a highly cyclical business. Historically, nobody wants to be locked into multi-year contracts," he explains. Companies sign long-term deals in a shortage panic, then renegotiate or abandon them when the market softens.
Crucially, he revealed that OpenAI reportedly bought wafers, not finished modules. These wafers can be stored in "wafer banks," giving OpenAI flexibility to package them later, contract the work out, or even resell them if the AI bubble cools. This move is about securing optionality, not necessarily hoarding finished goods.
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| OpenAI logo in black text and symbol |
Will the PlayStation 6 and Next Xbox Be Delayed?
This is the multi-billion-dollar question for gamers. With planning documents suggesting a PS6 manufacturing start in mid-2027, could the RAM crisis push that date back?
Eggleston is reassuring: Probably not.
"Nobody can meaningfully predict shortages that far ahead," he states. The extreme lead times quoted now—sometimes 52 weeks or more—are often a supplier's polite way of deprioritizing a smaller client. The real issue is "panic ordering," which distorts the market and amplifies shortages.
He believes that while the crunch will hurt through 2025, console giants like Sony and Microsoft will secure their supply lines well ahead of a 2027 hardware launch, insulating them from the current volatility.
The Light at the End of the Tunnel: Relief Is Coming
The long-term outlook, according to Eggleston, is positive. Between 2026 and 2030, the big three memory makers are building 8-10 major new DRAM fabrication plants. These are real, steel-in-the-ground projects, not just press releases.
The final key is a technological leap: 3D DRAM. Similar to how NAND flash moved to 3D stacks to increase density, DRAM is heading vertically. "It won't boost bandwidth immediately, but it will push cheaper, high-capacity RAM into laptops and budget hardware, freeing up supply," Eggleston predicts.
The Bottom Line for PC Gamers:
- The High Prices Aren't Your Retailer's Fault: The shortage is structural, driven by AI's hunger for HBM.
- The Panic is Overblown: Dramatic headlines about 40% supply grabs are likely more PR than reality.
- Next-Gen Consoles Are Safe: The timeline for PS6 and next Xbox hardware is too far out to be impacted by today's spot shortages.
- Relief is on the Horizon: A wave of new manufacturing capacity and the shift to 3D DRAM technology should bring supply and demand back into balance, likely before the middle of 2027.
Hold on to your wallets a bit longer. The memory market has always been a cycle of boom and bust, and according to those who know it best, the next bust—bringing more affordable RAM—is already being built.
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| Sony PlayStation console with controllers and accessories |