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| The Helios One power plant as pictured in Fallout: New Vegas on PC |
The vault doors are sealed, and the speculation is running wild. As the second season of Amazon’s hit Fallout series barrels toward its finale, the fan community is in a frenzy, dissecting every frame and line of dialogue for clues. At the heart of the debate? A burning question: Is the television adaptation about to decide which video game endings are officially canon?
The showrunners have long played a delicate game, weaving a new story within the beloved universe without overtly invalidating players’ choices in the games. But after several major reveals, fans are convinced they’ve cracked the code—and not all are happy with the potential answer.
From the Lucky 38 to a Deathclaw: The Breadcrumb Trail
The theory crafting began in earnest with the first season’s final shot: a stunning reveal of the Lucky 38 casino, the iconic spire of Mr. House’s empire in Fallout: New Vegas. This sent a clear signal that the show’s timeline and location were converging with one of the franchise's most beloved titles.
A Season 2 sneak peek doubled down, teasing the terrifying claws of a Deathclaw. But it was the mid-season appearance of the Brotherhood of Steel’s airborne fortress, the Prydwen, that truly ignited the debate. For eagle-eyed gamers, the Prydwen’s presence—and its apparent intact state—spoke volumes.
The Prydwen Problem: Narrowing Down Fallout 4’s Endings
In Fallout 4, the fate of the Prydwen is directly tied to the player’s chosen faction. It is destroyed in both the Railroad and Institute storylines. Therefore, fans have logically concluded that its survival in the show rules those endings out as potential canon. This leaves the Brotherhood of Steel ending (where it obviously survives) and the Minutemen ending (where it can be spared) as the only viable options from Fallout 4.
This realization led many to believe the show was carefully selecting a path through established lore. But the latest theories suggest the ambition is even greater.
The "Fog of War" Promise vs. The "House Always Wins" Theory
Executive producer Jonathan Nolan previously told IGN that the writers would employ a "fog of war" approach, suggesting they wouldn't explicitly validate any single game ending. He noted that Bethesda’s Todd Howard gave one key directive: “Make sure none of the storylines from the show contradicted any of the major possible endings from the game.”
However, after Episode 7, "The Handoff," a prevailing theory has taken hold: the show is steering toward the "House Always Wins" ending from Fallout: New Vegas. In this scenario, the genius, centuries-old Mr. House emerges victorious, securing control over New Vegas and neutralizing the other major factions—the NCR, Caesar’s Legion, and Yes Man’s independent New Vegas.
Fans point to the emphasis on the Lucky 38 and the strategic maneuvering in the show as evidence. But this creates a narrative headache: if House wins, it renders the endings for three other major factions non-canonical, seemingly breaking the "no contradiction" rule Howard requested.
Fan Counterpoints: Bait, Switches, and Just Enjoying the Ride
Not everyone is convinced. A popular counter-theory within the community is that this is an elaborate bait-and-switch. The writers are aware of savvy fans and are using iconic imagery to misdirect, setting up a conclusion that remains unique to the show.
Some have humorously suggested the Mr. House we might see could be an AI backup, a digital ghost of the original who achieved a form of immortality. Others offer simpler advice: enjoy the show as its own story. As one fan succinctly put it on a popular Reddit thread discussing the canon, "The show is its own canon. The games are their own canon. They can peacefully coexist without invalidating each other."
For now, the fate of the Wasteland—on screen, at least—remains a mystery. All theories, whether they point to House, the Brotherhood, or a complete surprise, will be put to the test in next week’s season finale. One thing is certain: the Fallout community will be watching, ready to debate the implications for years to come.
Want to catch up before the finale?
Buy the Fallout Season 1 Amazon Exclusive bundle here.
Sources: YouTube Theory Breakdown | Reddit Thread on Canon | Nerdist Article on Endings