The dream of a foldable iPhone is inching closer to reality, and in a surprising twist, it might not carry the eye-watering price tag many had feared. According to a new supply chain report from renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the cost of a critical component—the hinge—is coming in significantly lower than expected, giving Apple crucial flexibility to price its first foldable device competitively.
The report, which you can read in detail on Ming-Chi Kuo's Medium blog, reveals that the average selling price (ASP) of the Apple iPhone Fold's hinge is now expected to be between $70 and $80. This figure is a substantial 20% to 35% lower than earlier market forecasts that pegged the hinge cost at a hefty $100 to $120.
This dramatic reduction is a game-changer. For consumers, it directly translates to a higher likelihood of a more accessible launch price. For Apple, it provides much-needed breathing room to manage production margins on what is undoubtedly an expensive device to engineer, without necessarily passing the entire cost onto the consumer.
The Supply Chain Shake-Up: Foxconn Takes the Lead
So, how is this cost reduction being achieved? Kuo’s report sheds light on a major shift in Apple's supply chain strategy. The primary production of the intricate hinge will be handled by a joint venture (JV) formed specifically for this task between manufacturing giant Foxconn (Hon Hai) and specialist hinge maker Shin Zu Shing (SZS).
This JV has reportedly secured a dominant 65% of Apple’s total hinge orders. Foxconn is said to hold a slightly larger stake and lead the strategic direction, marking a significant expansion of its role. This is one of the first confirmed instances of Foxconn moving beyond final device assembly to directly manufacture a core, complex component for an Apple product.
The remaining 35% of orders have gone to Amphenol, a established Apple supplier. This split suggests Apple is maintaining its typical multi-sourcing strategy to mitigate risk and ensure production volume.
Why the Hinge is Getting Cheaper (It’s Not About Cheaper Materials)
One might assume that a lower cost means lower quality, but Kuo emphasizes that this is not the case. The drop in the hinge's ASP is attributed primarily to two factors:
- Design Optimization: Apple's engineers have likely refined the hinge mechanism, simplifying its construction without compromising the durability or smooth action the company is known for. A less complex design is inherently cheaper to produce.
- Foxconn's Manufacturing Muscle: Foxconn's unparalleled expertise in large-scale, precision manufacturing brings immense efficiency to the production line. Their ability to streamline processes and achieve economies of scale is a key driver in driving down the per-unit cost.
This focus on design and efficiency, rather than cheaper raw materials, is good news for potential buyers, as it suggests the final product will still meet Apple's high standards for quality.
The Ripple Effect: Winners and Losers in the Supply Chain
While the lower hinge cost is a clear win for Apple and potential customers, Kuo’s report outlines a more nuanced picture for the suppliers involved.
- Amphenol's Cautious Approach: Their smaller share of the orders may be a strategic choice. The company is reportedly focusing more on other high-growth areas, such as AI hardware, where profit margins might be more attractive.
- SZS's Limited Upside: While Shin Zu Shing is a key part of the winning JV, Foxconn's leadership and larger stake mean it will take a bigger portion of the earnings. Furthermore, SZS is receiving fewer orders for upstream components, which further limits its potential profitability from this project.
This dynamic underscores a classic Apple supply chain story: Apple reaps the largest benefits from cost reductions, while component suppliers often operate on tighter, more competitive margins. As one report suggests, the stage is being set for a late 2026 or early 2027 release for Apple's first foldable iPhone.
Looking further ahead, Kuo expects Luxshare-ICT to become an additional hinge supplier after 2027. The entry of another major player like Luxshare will increase competition within the supply chain, potentially driving costs down even further for future generations of the foldable iPhone.
The Bottom Line for the Foldable iPhone
The significant drop in hinge costs is the most promising sign yet that Apple is serious about making a splash in the foldable market with a competitively priced device. It gives the company the flexibility to either undercut current premium foldables from Samsung and Google or to include more advanced features elsewhere in the device while maintaining a palatable price point.
While the final decision on pricing rests with Apple, the news from the supply chain indicates that the long-awaited foldable iPhone might not be the luxury outlier it was once presumed to be, but a genuinely considered contender in the evolving smartphone landscape.
Foldable iPhone Hinge: Key Updates — Lower-Than-Expected ASP Favors Apple; Supplier Shifts Favor Foxconn; Luxshare as a Potential Supplier; Reassessing the Contribution to SZS and Amphenol
— éƒæ˜ŽéŒ¤ (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) October 12, 2025
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