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| Design concept for the PS6. |
The next generation of gaming consoles is closer than you might think. With late 2027 widely expected as the launch window for both Sony’s PS6 and a dedicated PS6 handheld, excitement has been building for months. Early leaks pointed to a massive leap in performance, especially in ray tracing – with some sources claiming a 10x improvement over the PS5. But a well-known industry insider has now poured cold water on those numbers, suggesting the real-world gains may be far more modest.
According to a new analysis, the much-hyped ray tracing boost could actually be closer to 3x in many games, raising questions about whether the next-generation hype train has left the station a little too early.
The Leak That Started It All
For months, prominent leaker Moore’s Law is Dead (MLID) has been sharing details about AMD’s next-gen console chips, codenamed “Orion” (for PS6) and “Oberon” (PS5). In various videos and posts, MLID suggested that AMD’s internal documentation points to a 10x ray tracing performance uplift – a figure that sent shockwaves through the gaming community. Many interpreted that as meaning the PS6 could potentially outpace even high-end PC graphics cards like the RTX 5090 in certain ray tracing workloads.
But not everyone is convinced.
Insider Steps In: “Misinterpreting the Docs”
The pushback comes from KeplerL2, a respected hardware analyst and frequent contributor on the NeoGaf forums. Replying to a discussion about MLID’s claims, KeplerL2 wrote:
“MLID is misinterpreting AMD docs wrt performance.”
KeplerL2 then went further, explaining exactly why the 10x figure is misleading. In a lengthy post on NeoGaf, the insider clarified:
“He thinks if a slide says ‘Orion 10x RT perf vs Oberon’ it means you can look at PS5 running a game at 30 FPS, multiply that by 10x and compare with 5090 doing let’s say 200 FPS and conclude PS6 > 5090.”
That, KeplerL2 argues, is a fundamental misunderstanding of how AMD measures “performance” in its internal slides. The 10x number, they claim, refers to a specific, narrow set of ray tracing operations – not a blanket multiplier for actual in-game frame rates.
To back up their argument, KeplerL2 shared what appears to be Ubisoft’s performance data for Assassin’s Creed Shadows, breaking down frame times for various ray tracing effects (shadows, reflections, global illumination). By extrapolating from AMD’s internal estimates, KeplerL2 concluded that the real-world performance gain from PS5 to PS6 will be approximately 3.10x – not 10x.
“In games with light or moderate ray tracing, the gap will be around 3x,” KeplerL2 wrote. “Only in extremely heavy RT or path-traced scenes will you see a larger difference – but even then, not 10x.”
The Full Context: What MLID Actually Said
To be fair to Moore’s Law is Dead, he never explicitly promised a 10x increase in FPS. Responding to a post by @Zuby_Tech on X (formerly Twitter) that highlighted KeplerL2’s criticism, MLID pushed back:
“I only report the numbers AMD directly states. There’s no misinterpreting – it’s literally what their slides say.”
MLID also noted that Sony’s own PS5 Pro – expected to launch in late 2024 – is already advertised as delivering 2x to 3x faster ray tracing than the base PS5. By that logic, the PS6 would need to be at least 4x faster than the PS5 to represent a meaningful generational leap, and likely more. MLID’s position is that the 10x figure comes directly from AMD’s “Orion vs Oberon” comparison slides, and that KeplerL2 is the one adding caveats that AMD never included.
Digging Into the Numbers
For a deeper dive into the original NeoGaf discussion, you can read the full exchange here:
🔗 MLID Project Helix is 25% faster than PS6? (Page 11)
And KeplerL2’s most detailed breakdown appears on page 14:
🔗 KeplerL2’s analysis on NeoGaf (Page 14)
MLID’s official response on X can be found here:
What This Means for PS6 and the Handheld
So who’s right? The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.
- KeplerL2’s view is that “10x” is a theoretical peak under ideal conditions, not a guarantee for real games. A 3x improvement is still impressive – that’s the difference between 30fps and 90fps in ray traced titles, or 60fps to 180fps. But it’s not the console-killer, PC-beating monster that some headlines suggested.
- MLID’s view is that AMD’s own documentation says 10x, and he’s just the messenger. He would argue that early PS5 games also didn’t hit Sony’s advertised “up to 100x faster I/O” numbers right away, but over time, first-party titles got close.
The bigger picture: Both sources agree that the PS6 will deliver a substantial leap in ray tracing performance. Whether it’s 3x or 10x depends entirely on the game’s engine, the complexity of its lighting, and how well developers optimize for the new architecture. In lighter RT workloads (like shadows only), gains will be lower. In path-traced, full-scene lighting, the gap could widen significantly – possibly to 6x or 7x.
No Need to Panic (Yet)
For gamers, this debate is ultimately academic until we see actual PS6 games running on final hardware. A 3x ray tracing improvement over PS5 would still be one of the biggest generational leaps in console history – larger than PS4 to PS5, and easily enough to enable 4K/60 with high-quality ray tracing in most AAA titles.
And don’t forget the PS6 handheld – a device that will likely target 1080p or 1440p with scaled-back ray tracing to preserve battery life. The efficiency gains from AMD’s next-gen RDNA 5 architecture (or whatever it ends up being called) could make that handheld a true portable powerhouse.
For now, take both the “10x” and “3x” claims with a grain of salt. The only certainty is that the PS6 will arrive by late 2027, and it will be a significant upgrade over the PS5. Just maybe not the 10x miracle some hoped for.
Stay tuned for more updates as new leaks emerge – and as always, treat early performance numbers as speculative until Sony makes its official announcement.
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| KeplerL2's post on NeoGaf about PS6 ray tracing performance. |